THIS SNOWPACK SUMMARY EXPIRED ON February 13, 2016 @ 12:00 am
Snowpack Summary published on February 12, 2016 @ 7:00 am
Issued by Ben Bernall - Kootenai National Forest
Avalanche Character 1: Storm Slab
Storm Slab avalanches release naturally during snow storms and can be triggered for a few days after a storm. They often release at or below the trigger point. They exist throughout the terrain. Avoid them by waiting for the storm snow to stabilize.

National Weather Service Forecast predictions for the coming weekend are calling for an end to the warm sunny days which will be replaced by rain and temperatures running 10-15 degrees F above normal. This weather scenario will likely bring rain to the lower elevations and potenial for new snow above 5,000 feet. At this point it does not look like we will be recieving heavy acumulations. However, this snow will be falling on either a new melt-freeze crust or freshly developed surface hoar (image). Any new snow that falls at higher elevations this weekend will likely form a poor bond with the existing snowpack. This avalanche problem is hard to predict at this point due to the reliance on incoming weather.

Bottom Line: Be observant of incoming snow falling at higher elevations through the weekend; be cautious around any slopes that appear to be accumulating substantial loading or forming slabs.

Avalanche Character 2: Loose Wet
Loose Wet avalanches occur when water is running through the snowpack, and release at or below the trigger point. Avoid very steep slopes and terrain traps such as cliffs, gullies, or tree wells. Exit avalanche terrain when you see pinwheels, roller balls, a slushy surface, or during rain-on-snow events.

Again we are looking at a potential problem that is weather dependent.  The past few days have brought in some vary warm temperatures in the mountains of the Kootenai National Forest that have created some small point releases and roller activity.  This scenario will likely continue over the next few days with the incoming weather.  A rising and falling snow line and warm temps will continue to create some small point release slides.  At this point the snowpack is showing a good deal of strength due to the last few days of thawing and refreezing (i.e. crusty) and any releases from rain and warm weather are likely to be small unless we recieve higher than predicted snow accumulations at lower elevations

Snowpack Discussion

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recent observations

Today (February 11th) Nate and I traveled into the Buckhorn Ridge area of the Purcell Mountain Range.  After a warm and sunny week with temperatures reaching into the upper 40s we expected some crusty conditions. Our pessimism fulfilled itself as we snowmobiled up to an elevation of 6,000 feet to find a nice supportive crust with a layer of surface hoar forming due to the cool nights above 5,500 feet.  This surface hoar development is likely to be pretty scattered across the forest.  Temperature inversions have been holding in pockets of cold air in the valley bottoms, and warm air seems to be trapped at the middle elevations  below 5,500 feet.  Above this level we observed scattered pockets of surface hoar at upper elevations where colder, moist air has been growing some substantial crystals. 



Surface hoar development at 5,500' below Buckhorn ridge on a northeast aspect.

Whether or not this surface hoar development creates a long term problem for snowpack stability will be determined by how high the rain climbs this weekend.  Warm temps and rain could break it down; however, it could get buried with a fresh layer of snow causing a very weak interface and a tricky avalanche problem in the future.

We dug a snow pit at 6,100' on a northeast aspect where we found terrible skiing conditions but a very stable snowpack.  The weakest points in the stability tests failed with hard force at 12 inches (below the January 28th rain crust) and at 19 inches on a snow density change (ECTN24) below the surface.  These failures had a fairly clean shear but did not propagate across the column. 

 

weather

Backcountry Forecast from NWS Missoula issued:

320 PM MST Thu Feb 11 2016



DISCUSSION: A change is finally on our doorstep, as the region

transitions to a more active, wetter pattern. To start, showers

will overspread northwest Montana later today through tonight,

while snow levels rise to 6000 feet and higher. A few stray

showers could make it to parts of west central Montana and north

central Idaho, but overall the best focus will remain across

northwest Montana. This will change Friday through Saturday as a

cold front crosses the entire Northern Rockies and precipitation

becomes more widespread with time. Snow levels will then drop to

below 5000 feet by Saturday, changing rain to snow for mid slopes

and high terrain. Some snow may make it to the lowest elevations,

but confidence is not great at this time.



A few notes: this system has sped up from previous model runs, and

depending on how fast or slow snow levels rise today and Friday

will ultimately decide how much snow falls, and where it falls.

This is an inherently difficult forecast, so please stay abreast

to future updates.





Kootenai:



--------------------------- 5000-7000 FT ----------------------------

                      Tonight      FRI          FRI Night    SAT     

Cloud Cover           95%          95%          90%          90%     

Hi/Lo Temps           32 to 35     38 to 42     26 to 32     31 to 36

Winds(mph)            S  5         S  7         SW 12G25     SW 15G29

Precip Chc            80           80           90           80      

Precip Type           showers      showers      sno/rain     sno/shr 

Liquid Amt            0.10         0.21         0.24         0.12    

Snow Ratio(SLR)       10:1         11:1         12:1         18:1    

Snow Amt(in)          0-1          1            0-2          2-3     



Snow Level            5000         5500         6000         3500    

Disclaimer

This advisory applies only to backcountry areas outside established ski area boundaries. This advisory describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur. This advisory expires midnight on the posted day unless otherwise noted. The information in this advisory is provided by the USDA Forest Service who is solely responsible for its content.